Indicator Handbook
Indicator Handbook
Section titled “Indicator Handbook”Professional research is not about watching more charts. It is about knowing what each indicator should answer, and what it should not.
Working rules
Section titled “Working rules”- Try to confirm one conclusion with at least two different indicator types.
- Do not confuse daily volatility with structural change.
- Do not treat a single threshold like an automatic trading button.
Core indicators and their role
Section titled “Core indicators and their role”| Indicator | Main question it answers | Best timeframe |
|---|---|---|
| AHR999 | Is price cheap or stretched relative to the long-term path? | Medium to long term |
| MVRV | Is aggregate market profit pressure too high or too low? | Medium to long term |
| AHR999 vs. MVRV | How should valuation disagreement between two core metrics be read? | Medium to long term |
| Fear & Greed | Is sentiment crowded, overheated, or washed out? | Short to medium term |
| Fear & Greed limits | When is a sentiment gauge informative, and when is it mostly noise? | Short to medium term |
| Hashrate | Is network security and miner commitment still strengthening? | Medium to long term |
| Difficulty | Is mining competition and protocol adjustment still reinforcing the network? | Medium to long term |
| Gold/BTC | Is Bitcoin gaining or losing ground against gold? | Medium to long term |
| BTC/ETH | Is internal crypto risk appetite broadening or contracting? | Medium term |
| mNAV | Is the equity wrapper around Bitcoin carrying too much premium? | Medium term |
A practical way to combine them
Section titled “A practical way to combine them”- Valuation layer: AHR999 + MVRV
- Sentiment layer: Fear & Greed
- Structure layer: Hashrate + Difficulty + Gold/BTC + BTC/ETH
- Access channel layer: mNAV
If three of the four layers point in the same direction, the read is usually more robust. If they conflict, the market is probably still in transition and pacing should slow down.